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<html lang="zh"><head><title>通货膨胀的猪</title><meta charset="utf-8"/><link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com"/><link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com"/><link rel="stylesheet" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=IBM Plex Mono&family=Noto Serif Simplified Chinese:wght@400;700&family=Source Sans Pro:ital,wght@0,400;0,600;1,400;1,600&display=swap"/><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"/><meta property="og:title" content="通货膨胀的猪"/><meta property="og:description" content="最近公司食堂饭菜质量下降，涉及通货膨胀引发的猪肉价格上涨。本文从经济学角度探讨通货膨胀和猪肉价格的关系，分析了猪肉生产流程中各环节的影响因素，以及市场因素对猪肉价格的影响。."/><meta property="og:image" content="https://wiki.7wate.com/static/og-image.png"/><meta property="og:width" content="1200"/><meta property="og:height" content="675"/><link rel="icon" href="../../../static/icon.png"/><meta name="description" content="最近公司食堂饭菜质量下降，涉及通货膨胀引发的猪肉价格上涨。本文从经济学角度探讨通货膨胀和猪肉价格的关系，分析了猪肉生产流程中各环节的影响因素，以及市场因素对猪肉价格的影响。."/><meta name="generator" content="Quartz"/><link href="../../../index.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" spa-preserve/><link href="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/KaTeX/0.16.9/katex.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" spa-preserve/><script src="../../../prescript.js" type="application/javascript" spa-preserve></script><script type="application/javascript" spa-preserve>const fetchData = fetch("../../../static/contentIndex.json").then(data => data.json())</script></head><body data-slug="Personal/Blog/2022/通货膨胀的猪"><div id="quartz-root" class="page"><div id="quartz-body"><div class="left sidebar"><h2 class="page-title"><a href="../../..">🪴 X·Eden</a></h2><div class="spacer mobile-only"></div><div class="search"><button class="search-button" id="search-button"><p>搜索</p><svg role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 19.9 19.7"><title>Search</title><g class="search-path" fill="none"><path stroke-linecap="square" d="M18.5 18.3l-5.4-5.4"></path><circle cx="8" cy="8" r="7"></circle></g></svg></button><div id="search-container"><div id="search-space"><input autocomplete="off" id="search-bar" name="search" type="text" aria-label="搜索些什么" placeholder="搜索些什么"/><div id="search-layout" data-preview="true"></div></div></div></div><button class="darkmode" id="darkmode"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" version="1.1" id="dayIcon" x="0px" y="0px" viewBox="0 0 35 35" style="enable-background:new 0 0 35 35" xml:space="preserve" aria-label="暗色模式"><title>暗色模式</title><path d="M6,17.5C6,16.672,5.328,16,4.5,16h-3C0.672,16,0,16.672,0,17.5 S0.672,19,1.5,19h3C5.328,19,6,18.328,6,17.5z M7.5,26c-0.414,0-0.789,0.168-1.061,0.439l-2,2C4.168,28.711,4,29.086,4,29.5 C4,30.328,4.671,31,5.5,31c0.414,0,0.789-0.168,1.06-0.44l2-2C8.832,28.289,9,27.914,9,27.5C9,26.672,8.329,26,7.5,26z M17.5,6 C18.329,6,19,5.328,19,4.5v-3C19,0.672,18.329,0,17.5,0S16,0.672,16,1.5v3C16,5.328,16.671,6,17.5,6z M27.5,9 c0.414,0,0.789-0.168,1.06-0.439l2-2C30.832,6.289,31,5.914,31,5.5C31,4.672,30.329,4,29.5,4c-0.414,0-0.789,0.168-1.061,0.44 l-2,2C26.168,6.711,26,7.086,26,7.5C26,8.328,26.671,9,27.5,9z M6.439,8.561C6.711,8.832,7.086,9,7.5,9C8.328,9,9,8.328,9,7.5 c0-0.414-0.168-0.789-0.439-1.061l-2-2C6.289,4.168,5.914,4,5.5,4C4.672,4,4,4.672,4,5.5c0,0.414,0.168,0.789,0.439,1.06 L6.439,8.561z M33.5,16h-3c-0.828,0-1.5,0.672-1.5,1.5s0.672,1.5,1.5,1.5h3c0.828,0,1.5-0.672,1.5-1.5S34.328,16,33.5,16z M28.561,26.439C28.289,26.168,27.914,26,27.5,26c-0.828,0-1.5,0.672-1.5,1.5c0,0.414,0.168,0.789,0.439,1.06l2,2 C28.711,30.832,29.086,31,29.5,31c0.828,0,1.5-0.672,1.5-1.5c0-0.414-0.168-0.789-0.439-1.061L28.561,26.439z
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<p>那么通货膨胀的猪究竟是什么？首先是通货膨胀，虽然高中政治涉及到一些，但是不多。根据维基百科《通货膨胀》的释义为「货币流通数量增加，整体物价水平持续上涨，人们的购买力下降的经济现象。」。猪不就是二师兄嘛，国民第一肉类摄入，忽高忽低的价格比油价还坑……</p>
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<p>2022 年 08 月 29 日根据《中国农业农村部》公布的《农产品批发价 200 指数》，畜牧产品和蔬菜分别涨了 0.76 和 3.82 个点，其采用的帕氏指数编制方法作为权重，我也是看不懂。只是知道终端价格涨了不少 ~</p>
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<p><img src="https://static.7wate.com/img/2022/08/30/4a867fdac4713.png" alt="农产品批发价格200"/></p>
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<p>因为蔬菜蛋奶类即使涨价也是极少数变态式的疯涨，所以价格变化最明显的就是二师兄了。再加上身边朋友多从事养殖、屠宰、零售行业，更能获得终端的一手信息。那么猪价究竟是由什么来构成的，这个流通环节是什么因素会导致猪肉价格忽高忽低？</p>
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<p>接下来我先简单叙述一下，一只猪从诞生至餐桌的全流程。</p>
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<p><img src="https://static.7wate.com/img/2022/08/30/3484b5d51dad0.png" alt="猪肉流程"/></p>
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<p>接下来咱一个环节一个环节的细细道来，首先小猪仔出生时到成猪 200 天期间的费用，这一环节的损溢价由养殖场承担。</p>
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<ol>
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<li>养殖厂房：一次投资，费用固定，每年小修小补开销不大，影响因素为 1。</li>
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<li>人员工资：劳动力市场丰富，人员工资固定，市场价格小幅度波动，影响因素为 3。</li>
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<li>日常开销：水、电价格，每月固定数额，上下浮动有限，市场价格波动较小，影响因素为 1。</li>
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<li>玉米饲料：受天灾，市场影响，市场价格波动不稳定，影响因素为 7。</li>
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<li>养殖损耗：根据养殖场技术和效率以及不可抗拒的天灾决定，抛去天灾因素，影响因素为 5。</li>
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<li>猪仔价格：小猪仔的来源有市场采购和自繁自育，所以价格相对稳定，影响因素为 3。</li>
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<li>贷款利息：因为根据猪价格以及利润不可控，所以利息浮动较大，影响因素 5。</li>
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<li>政府开支：初始建厂三年内费用较多，后续费用开支稳定，影响因素 3。</li>
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</ol>
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<p>这一闭环下，玉米饲料、养殖损耗和贷款利息为最大影响因素，虽然市场供需因素不可控，但是国家对市场的宏观调控还是比较可靠的。紧接着就是屠宰场环节，小型屠宰场最重要的就是现金流以及业务量了。</p>
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<ol>
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<li>
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<p>屠宰厂房：因为国家会倒逼整个行业的进步，所以每年都需要投资新增设备厂房（小屠宰场），影响因素 0。</p>
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</li>
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<li>
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<p>人员工资：影响因素 0。</p>
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</li>
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<li>
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<p>日常开支：影响因素 0。</p>
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</li>
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<li>
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<p>······</p>
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</li>
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</ol>
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<p>你是不是觉得很奇怪，为什么都是 0 呢，因为屠宰场没有定价权，所以这些影响因素为 0！那为什么养殖场有呢，因为养殖场可以决定养殖数量，所以可以拥有部分初始定价权，毕竟赔本了我就晚会再卖嘛。</p>
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<p>如上所述，如果各个环节保持相对稳定，那么猪肉价格也会维持在一个稳定的区间。但是呢，养殖场环境的影响因素不可能让猪肉价格翻倍的啊，如果真的能，我估计做梦都能笑醒。屠宰场更不用说了，走的就是业务量和现金流。终端零售店就是打工人，不要指望房东减租了哈哈。这样的话，每个环节的费用和利润都是环环相扣的，大家都是吃这一个蛋糕，你多吃一点，我就少一点，但是蛋糕没变大啊，所以当下的猪肉价格影响因素只有市场因素。</p>
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<p>事实也是如此，一直以来影响猪肉价格的因素也只有市场因素，这也是由市场经济体制决定的。下图是 2022 年 3 月份至 7 月份的生猪采购价格走势图。</p>
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<p><img src="https://static.7wate.com/img/2022/08/30/9c4bdac7061b9.png" alt="猪肉"/></p>
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<p>如果按照成猪周期是 200 天左右，也就是 7 个月左右。其他所有因素稳定的情况下，线性预测猪肉价格最快也要明年开春 3 月份左右才会回落。</p>
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<p>本文不具有科学性和普遍性，只是个人的一些瞥见。我其实想说的不是这，我想说的是工资工资工资！！！5 个月猪头价格翻倍，我他妈工资没涨好嘛，一家四口每个月按照 20 斤猪肉的情况下，我要比之前多花一倍的价钱。</p>
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<p>不仅仅是猪肉好嘛，油价、鸡蛋等等等，虽然价格可以接受，但是赤裸裸的剥削我等无产阶级。小猪仔我们养的，二师兄我们杀的，工作我们做的，我们的购买力就莫名其妙的降低了？</p>
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<p>最后也告诫我们一个道理，追求可以把握的优质资产，学会理性消费并且控制财务开支。</p></article><hr/><div class="page-footer"></div></div><div class="right sidebar"><div class="graph"><h3>关系图谱</h3><div class="graph-outer"><div id="graph-container" data-cfg="{"drag":true,"zoom":true,"depth":1,"scale":1.1,"repelForce":0.5,"centerForce":0.3,"linkDistance":30,"fontSize":0.6,"opacityScale":1,"showTags":true,"removeTags":[],"focusOnHover":false}"></div><button id="global-graph-icon" aria-label="Global Graph"><svg version="1.1" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" x="0px" y="0px" viewBox="0 0 55 55" fill="currentColor" xml:space="preserve"><path d="M49,0c-3.309,0-6,2.691-6,6c0,1.035,0.263,2.009,0.726,2.86l-9.829,9.829C32.542,17.634,30.846,17,29,17
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